We Can Rebuild It. We Have the Technology; Let’s Talk Mitigation
On April 4 the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the third installment of its overall ‘Sixth Assessment Report’ — thus completing the trilogy. The first report, ‘The Physical Science Basis,’ was released in August and established for the first time that it was “unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.” (Undoubtedly a no duh moment for most of you but trust me when I tell you that this is strong language for scientists.) The second, ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,’ was released in February and informed us that the world has already experienced “irreversible” changes due to human influenced temperature rise. That brings us to last week’s much-anticipated finale, ‘Mitigation of Climate Change.’
So, what does this report tell us? Well, let’s start with the bad news. According to this most recent report the Paris Climate Accords goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is essentially out of reach. To achieve this goal, the scientists estimate that global emissions would need to peak by 2025. Three years from now. Beyond 2025, the scientists estimate that overall global emissions would need to be cut by a minimum of 30–40% by 2030. Eight years from now. These realizations, daunting enough at face value are made even more so when one realizes that if all countries meet their current emissions reductions pledges (a HUGE if), the world would be on track to warm by around 2.7 degrees Celsius. Even following the flurry of net-zero and methane commitments announced at COP26 last fall — commitments that all current evidence indicates will not be met — we miss the Paris Accords’ consolation target of 2 degrees. For those of you thinking, “0.7 degrees doesn’t sound that far off,” let me remind you that the difference between 1.5 and 2.0 is the difference between losing 70–90% of coral reefs and virtual extinction. Let your imagination wander for what 2.7 degrees means. Or 3.2 degrees, our current path.
The report was not all doom and gloom, however! In fact, despite the sobering facts above, the report’s main takeaway was that we already have the tools. What are the steps we need to take? First and foremost, the world needs an urgent shift away from fossil fuels — a transition made possible and practical by drastic price reductions in renewable technologies. Agriculture — which the report pegs at roughly 22% of global emissions — can drastically reduce its emissions contribution through halting deforestation and simply reducing the amount of food that is thrown away on a regular basis. Even more, while it’s unlikely that emissions peak by 2025, or that we cut emissions by 40% by 2030, the report acknowledges that we can “overshoot” our targets and employ carbon capture and sequestration through carbon capture technology and, more importantly, ecosystem restoration and conservation. These are but a few of the proposed solutions and the report lists a number of available mitigation methods as well as their costs.
So what’s FWP’s takeaway from this final chapter? We can halt climate change. Read that again. We have the technology. We know the solutions. We simply need the will power to act AND the capital to invest. That’s where we come in. Every day at Flat World we are identifying renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, carbon capture and other environmental investment opportunities on behalf of our clients. Come join us as we shave off half a degree.
Tucker Pribor, Director of Research
This IPCC report highlighted the necessity of carbon capture in any realistic 1.5- or 2-degree scenario. As if on cue, Google parent company Alphabet and Facebook parent company Meta announced on Tuesday that they will be joining a $1b program dedicated to purchasing carbon capture projects. The program, which has committed to spending that sum on carbon capture projects by 2030, is sponsored by Frontier, a subsidiary of payments company Stripe. E-commerce company Shopify and consultant McKinsey have also joined.
Want to learn about more mitigation strategies? Project Drawdown has taken a look across sectors and solutions and compiled a list of the best options for carbon emissions mitigation and sequestration.
Need some tips on how to reduce your own carbon footprint? This article from NY Times walks you through a few scenarios and options each of us can do.
This newsletter is intended solely for informational purposes, and should not be construed as investment/trading advice and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities mentioned. Any reproduction or distribution of this document, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Flat World Partners is prohibited
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