The Big Ease-y; Let’s Talk Reopening Economies
Well, we try not to write about this pandemic thing but as the curve is bending more people asking ‘WHEN CAN WE EASE?!’. In the U.S., the Trump Administration issued federal reopening guidelines on April 16th (16-pages that one former public health official called “barely a PowerPoint”). As the federal government has yielded much of the burden to governors some are engaging in regional compacts — scary stuff to federalists and diehard Lin-Manuel Miranda fans. As for the federal guidelines, they cite a reduction in documented cases (or test positivity rates) as well as ‘hospital preparedness’ as criteria for reopening, at which point venues like restaurants, movie theatres, stadiums, places of worship, etc. open with physical distancing in place. After that time, more businesses would open and physical distancing could relax in two-week stages if there is “no evidence of a rebound”.
To that end, the Texas plan, approved by Dr. Birx (head of coronavirus response under Trump) calls for Texas malls, restaurants, theatres and museums to open May 1st at 25% capacity, with a suggestion to wear masks while in public. This plan, which will be revisited May 18th, has drawn criticism as the state barely meets their testing goal with social distancing in place. In what will likely become a theme, businesses are moving cautiously and will not reopen right away. Other states like South Carolina, and Georgia likely had peaks in mid-April and are also easing restrictions. Then there are very aggressive state reopening plans like Arkansas’ that calls for lifting restrictions even as case counts are increasing. And lest our readers think this is just the U.S., France is pursuing a self-described ‘risky’ plan to open shops, markets and some schools begins May 11.
Currently, most of the U.S. public is supportive of maintaining restrictions but the economic hardship is intense. Experts advocate for mass testing, contact tracing, and PPE proportional to the spread in order to successfully reopen. In fact, in order to stay open with no restrictions, countries may face a choice between mass testing or mass surveillance until a vaccine is widespread. While the testing has ramped up since February, it is not at levels experts want and may be plateauing. Heavily hit areas like New York have just begun random testing and will likely extend stay-at-home orders (unclear when Dorrian’s will be back). As far as monitoring, South Korea and Singapore showcased the effectiveness of aggressive surveillance efforts to remain in ‘containment’ stage but both have seen some resurgence and it’s unclear how this would work in countries as the UK, which has decided not to go with the app that AAPL and GOOG co-developed. These solutions will be critical to stop new outbreaks, especially where community spread has already occurred.
While there is no one-size-fits-all approach for reopening, we need coordination and clear metrics to follow, not just ‘down trend’ or ‘hospital preparedness’ but specific test positivity rates, rolling average hospitalizations, etc. Crucially, we have to gather the missing data on spread and prevalence of the virus so we have the whole picture, especially about immunity. There are definitely some good trends out there with decreases in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths which makes it important that we build on the gains we have made while making sure we help other countries keep this under wraps.
Kellen Parker, Head of Research
U.S. stocks were up yesterday as Gilead Sciences’s said its coronavirus drug remdesvir met its primary goal in government trials.
After Zoom’s wild growth positively everyone seems to be rolling out video conferencing. Following FB and MSFT recent efforts, GOOG’s Meet will now allow users to conference for free.
Audible (currently free) has a guided meditation by P. Diddy called “Honor Yourself” that is surprisingly good.
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