Slow Dancing in a Burning Room; Let’s Talk Adaptation
Dear FWP Community,
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a humanitarian crisis for millions of people, and our hearts and minds are with the soldiers, fighters, residents and refugees who are on the frontlines of this calamity. However, the headline effects of this war are far reaching with Europe facing an energy and economic crisis and the United States anticipating spillover effects in its economy and international relations. Even before this latest crisis, many more countries have seen military conflict and economic hardship causing millions of people — from Syria, Libya, Ethiopia, Central America — to flee their homes rather than suffer the ravages of war, starvation or climate change. Russia’s incursion into Ukraine serves as a stark reminder to maintain relationships — humanitarian, trade, military — with people all over the world so that when the time comes, we have friends and options to deal with dictators and sea level rise alike.
- The FWP Team
With everything going on in the world it would be easy to have missed that on Monday the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released ‘Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.’ This is the second of three reports that together will make up the panel’s complete ‘Sixth Assessment Report.’ Even if you didn’t miss it, given that the comprehensive report spans over 3,500 pages, we’re willing to bet you’re still working your way through it. Regardless of which camp you fall into, fear not! Flat World has pored over pages and pages of report summaries, and we are here to break it down for you. Our hot take: things are not good.
First, some quick background: The UN IPCC “was established in 1988 to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on the current state of knowledge about climate change.” With the first official report released in 1990, the panel has released new reports roughly every 6 years since. The most recent report was introduced in August 2021 as a preamble to, or table setter for, the COP26 UN Climate Conference in Glasgow, Scotland. ‘The Physical Science Basis’ — part 1 of 3 — made waves, stating for the first time that evidence of human influence on a warming planet was “unequivocal.” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the report as a “code red for humanity” and implored governments to “act decisively now.”
So, what does Monday’s sequel tell us? Climate change is here. Now. And with it, “irreversible” consequences. Described by multiple reporters as an “urgent call to adapt,” the report underscores that with 1.1 degrees Celsius of average global temperature rise already experienced since the 19th century, the earth has already been irrevocably altered. Be it increased extreme weather patterns, raging wildfires, prolonged droughts, or rising seas, the earth, today, is changed. Even with these very real, very tangible examples, however, nations have not done nearly enough to protect cities, infrastructure, and vulnerable populations. According to the report, as many as 3.6 billion people live in areas that are “highly vulnerable to climate change” today. That’s over 45% of the global population, folks. Without “transformational” changes to the way societies live and function (i.e., how we build homes, grow food, etc.) all the mitigation investment in the world will not prevent immense amounts of human displacement and suffering.
With nations needing to essentially eliminate all fossil fuel burning by 2050 in order to not breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, it is unlikely the Paris Climate Accords are achieved. At least as written. And while it’s possible that we ultimately fall back below this level thanks to the weaning of fossil fuels, carbon capture, and other mitigation efforts, this report highlights that there will be (and already are) irreversible consequences to a warmer planet.
Luckily, at Flat World Partners we can walk and chew gum. Every day we are seeing exciting opportunities in the GHG mitigation space (e.g., renewable energy, carbon capture, EVs) as well as the adaptation and resiliency space (e.g., insurtech, sustainable and resilient infrastructure). UN Secretary-General Guterres described this most recent report as “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.” Come help us write a new one.
Tucker Pribor, Head of Private Investments
In a case that could have sweeping consequences on the Biden administration’s plans to combat climate change, the Supreme Court recently heard arguments surrounding the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to curb greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
Wondering what you can do to adapt? Check out the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit.
This newsletter is intended solely for informational purposes, and should not be construed as investment/trading advice and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities mentioned. Any reproduction or distribution of this document, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Flat World Partners is prohibited
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